Although I wudnt go quite as far as nobody writing him off, I agree with you on both points.
I dont know how many (if any) posts are being restricted or banned etc, but as it stands there has been a definate stepping back to breathe from lots of people, myself included.
I wont know what it will be like at BP, but I wont be vehemently on his case after any mistake however some will. In fact, some cant wait, and Im not surprised.